Changes in Early Summer Precipitation Characteristics Over South China and Taiwan: CESM2‐LE and CMIP6 Multi‐Model Simulations and Projections

The May and June precipitation (known as early summer precipitation; ESP) is an important water resource for South China Taiwan (SCTW). This study explores the similarities differences between Community Earth System Model Version 2-Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble in simulating characteristics of ESP over SCTW present day, projecting related changes at end 21st century. For present-day simulation, our results showed that CESM2-LE CMIP6 outperformed each other different examined features. was slightly better than capturing magnitude SCTW, while more capable representing interdecadal shifts occurrence timing maximum. Both projections indicated will be enhanced phase maximum delayed, from peaking around mid-June to late future. These can attributed short-wave trough southwest a intensification southwesterly wind ahead trough, which help transport moisture north Sea particularly mid-to-late June. In addition, relative CMIP6, less uncertainty projected increase delay. finding highlights model diversity may play role internal variability attributing SCTW.